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No, not the Thai Baht |
As of present the market in bitcoins still represents just about $50M (6.2M BTC), with under 4000 transactions per day, but is abound to rise considerably when widely adopted. By design the currency allows for a maximum of 21 million bitcoins on the market by 2141, not really that much, so deflation is being anticipated for to a further split up in decimals, up to eight, theoretically allowing for 2.1 peta (10^15) currency units.
Starting at a value of about a few dollarcents last year, a single bitcoin will trade for as much as $7.53 today (16-5-2011). A considerable increase since then and even since yesterday when the new currency was pegged at $6.70. At the same time the number of shops and services which accept bitcoin as legal tender is expanding.
On the downside black and grey money versus online gambling, illegal circuits such as drugs trade and even sponsorship of terrorists are quickly to meet eachother. Since bitcoin money changes hands anonymously without control by anybody, no supervision by authorities or national banks is feasible whatsoever. A very uncomfortable position for a government to be put in indeed.
Launch.is calls bitcoin "the most dangerous project we've ever seen". Furthermore they mention:
Bitcoin is a P2P currency that could topple governments, destabilize economies and create uncontrollable global bazaars for contraband. (...) After month of research and discovery, we've learned the following:
1. Bitcoin is a technologically sound project.
2. Bitcoin is unstoppable without end-user prosecution.
3. Bitcoin is the most dangerous open-source project ever created.
4. Bitcoin may be the most dangerous technological project since the internet itself.
5. Bitcoin is a political statement by technotarians (technological libertarians).*
6. Bitcoins will change the world unless governments ban them with harsh penalties.
Since demand is getting much higher than supply (the mining results), the currency is bound to get deflated, in fact it is designed to just do that. The expectation of a getting rich quick scheme might result in speculative prices as of today.
Once bitcoin currency exchange offices will be declared illegal or banned by banks and credit card companies, like Paypal already does, trade will go down and can cause bitcoins to drop big time, but likely not as bad as the Zimbabwean dollar.
Still, one could make big profits by buying bitcoins now (16-7-2011) and selling them at the right moment (soon).
Once bitcoin becomes outlawed by major economies and/or are seriously inflated, it will become the Wikileaks of currencies and is bound to be safe harboured in several nations with high digital freedom as a true digital currency fit for micro payments.
Update 17-05-2011: Besides the US, where a lot of libertarian minded idealists are busy to make efforts to indroduce the bitcoin as well as making cash, India, where Paypal stopped it's busines, seems like a pretyy big market ready to accept bitcoins right now.
I have heard about local currencies. You know back to the land kind of movements. But never this! Sounds so futuristic.
ReplyDeleteRather like the idea of playing with money this way because, let's face it, it's a game anyway. Will the world/universe ever see Star Trek creator Gene Roddenberry's vision of no currency?
Hmm, interesting question Lani.
ReplyDeleteI think it can be done, as soon as people figure out a way to replace money by knowledge.
My guess is that Satoshi Nakomoto is a trekkie :)
Good reading yoour post
ReplyDelete